APC Automatic Tickets, Direct Primaries For National Assembly Aspirants... - Izibili calls for caution

OPINION

APC Automatic Tickets, Direct Primaries For National Assembly Aspirants...                                                                 - Izibili calls for caution

By: Esezobor Izibili, Esq

In the high-stakes world of Nigerian politics, how a party chooses its candidates can determine not just electoral victory, but its internal survival. Nowhere is this more evident than in Edo State, where the All Progressives Congress (APC) has spent years oscillating between two flawed systems: consensus candidacy and open competitive primaries.

Esezobor Izibili, Esq

What appears, on the surface, to be a procedural choice is, in reality, a deeper struggle over power, control, and political survival.

The Two Roads To A Ticket

Within political parties, candidates' selection typically follows one of two paths. 

The first is consensus, where party elites negotiate behind closed doors to produce a single “acceptable” candidate. The second is open primaries, where aspirants battle publicly for votes from party members.

In theory, open primaries reflect democratic ideals. In practice, especially in a deeply factionalized party, they can resemble political warfare. This tension, has defined APC politics in Edo state.

"The lesson was clear: consensus only works when party leaders can enforce discipline—or adequately compensate those who lose out. Unfortunately, in Edo state, neither of the conditions held".

Why Consensus Keep Returning

Party insiders often describe consensus as a “necessary evil,” particularly in what one observer called a “nasty party environment”—a system marked by distrust, rival camps, and competing godfathers.

The logic is straightforward:

Open primaries are expensive, unpredictable, and often chaotic. They can devolve into public mudslinging, exposing internal fractures before the general election even begins. Allegations of corruption, incompetence, and betrayal, once aired, as a result of internal rivalry, rarely disappear. They simply become ammunition for opposition parties.

Consensus, by contrast, offers a quieter path. Deals are struck privately. Losers are promised compensation—appointments, future tickets, or political protection and others, are such compensations. The party presents a united front, at least on the surface; But that 'calm' is often deceptive.

Consensus tends to concentrate power in the hands of a few influential figures, allowing them to install candidates they can control. It also risks alienating grassroots members, who feel excluded from the process. And when those shut out of the deal refuse to cooperate, the conflict doesn’t disappear—it merely shifts.

As one party insider put it, “You don’t end the fight. You postpone it.”

The Case For Open Primaries:

Despite their risks, open primaries offer something consensus cannot - LEGITIMACY.

Candidates who emerge from competitive contests are often battle-tested, having survived internal scrutiny and mobilized real support. The process energizes party members, builds early momentum, and gives voters a sense of ownership.

It also creates room for outsiders—new entrants who might otherwise be blocked by entrenched interests.

But in a fragmented party, these benefits can come at a steep cost.

Without a trusted referee or credible voter register, primaries can produce multiple winners, parallel results, and prolonged legal battles. Instead of strengthening the party, they expose its deepest fractures.

"If recent history is any guide, the challenge will not be choosing between consensus and primaries. It will be managing the fallout of whichever option prevails".

Edo APC: A Pattern of Instability

Edo State offers a textbook example of this dilemma.

Over multiple election cycles, the APC has swung between consensus and direct primaries, with each approach producing its own crises.

In the lead-up to the 2020 governorship election, party leaders initially pushed for consensus, arguing that, it would reduce tensions within an already divided House. 

After internal negotiations, some persons emerged as preferred candidates. However, the agreement quickly unraveled. Other aspirants, that were distrustful of the process, refused to step aside. Eventually, what was meant to unify the party, instead deepened its divisions.

The lesson was clear: consensus only works when party leaders can enforce discipline—or adequately compensate those who lose out. Unfortunately, in Edo state, neither of the conditions held.

When the party shifted to direct primaries, the outcome was no less turbulent.

2024: When Primaries Produced Multiple Winners

The APC’s 2024 governorship primary was meant to showcase transparency through direct voting. Instead, it exposed the party’s internal disarray.

On the same day, different factions declared different winners. One committee announced Dennis Idahosa as the winner, with over 40,000 votes, while another returning officer declared Senator Monday Okpebholo the winner with a significantly lower score. A third claim emerged from another aspirant citing “authentic turnout.”

The party, in effect, had multiple candidates.

The intervention from the national leadership, eventually resolved the impasse. This led to the conduct of a supplementary primary under a new Committee Chairman. This time, Senator Monday Okpebholo emerged as the official candidate.

But the resolution came with a familiar political compromise: Idahosa, who was initially declared the winner, by one faction, was named the running mate;

This move was strategic, as it became the bridge builder that prevented defection and preserved party unity by absorbing a powerful rival into the ticket.

A System Driven By Power, Not Principle

A closer look at Edo state APC, reveals a consistent pattern: the choice between consensus and primaries is rarely about democratic ideals. It is about control.

When a dominant figure, such as an incumbent governor, controls party structures, consensus or indirect primaries become preferable.

When national leaders distrust state structures, they push for Direct Primaries to bypass local influence.

When no single power center exists, the party defaults to open contests, which often results in chaos.

In each case, the “rules” are shaped by who stands to benefit.

The Cost of Constant Conflict This cycle has consequences.

Consensus arrangements that collapse publicly damage the party’s credibility. Open primaries that produce disputes drain resources and fuels litigation. In both cases, internal attacks often resurface during general elections, weakening the party’s public image.

Perhaps, the most damaging, is voters' apathy. When party members feel excluded, or confused by conflicting outcomes, and enthusiasm drops.

The result is a party that spends more time managing internal crises than confronting its opponents.

Looking Ahead: A Familiar Risk

With signals such as “no automatic tickets” for future legislative hopefuls, APC Edo may be heading into another round of intense internal competition. A competition that could energize the party’s base. But it also risks reopening old wounds that is capable of triggering factional battles, legal disputes, and potential defections.

If recent history is any guide, the challenge will not be choosing between consensus and primaries. It will be managing the fallout of whichever option prevails.

The Bottom Line:

In Edo APC, candidates' selection is less about process and more about power.

Consensus offers short-term stability but weakens legitimacy. Open primaries promise participation but often deliver conflict.

Caught between the two, the party continues to navigate a familiar trade-off—seeking unity without losing control, and democracy without descending into disorder.

So far, Edo All Progressives Congress, APC, hasn't been able to manage neither perfectly. The government and the party - state working committee (SWC) -  may come out stronger; but the history says discipline is rare. A stitch in time saves nine and to before warned, is to before armed. To say more, may be otiose.

Sir Barr. Emmanuel Esezobor Izibili, hails from Ugbegun, Ward 10, in Esan Central Local Government Area of Edo state.

He is a seasoned Barrister-At-Law, Notary Public, Knight of Saint Mulumba (KSM) and practicing law under the Name & Style as EE LEGAL CONSULT (Otiti Chambers) headquarters in Abuja.